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match result explainer
FC Barcelona
93.8 -0.2
45%
1 - 1
27%
Real Madrid
94.2 +0.2
28%
Home team
Score of the match
Away team
Rating of the home team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Barcelona is now rated 93.8, down 0.2 from their previous rating.
Rating of the away team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Real Madrid is now rated 94.2, up 0.2 from their previous rating.
Pre-match predictions of the outcome, based on the ratings of the two teams and Barcelona's home field advantage. xGtoday predicted a 45% chance Barcelona would win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance Real Madrid would win. The green outline around the 27% indicates that the match ended in a draw.
match prediction explainer
Manchester City
45%
2.21
27%
4.76
Liverpool
28%
3.56
Home team
Away team
xGtoday estimates a 45% chance of the home team (Man City) winning the match.
xGtoday estimates a 27% chance of a draw
xGtoday estimates a 28% chance of the away team (Liverpool) winning the match
Greatest odds found for the home team to win
Greatest odds found for a draw. Green outline and stars highlight that xGtoday sees a higher likelihood of this result than the market. More stars indicate greater value.
1. FSV Mainz 05 sit 12 places above SC Freiburg in our European rankings, and 2 places above them in Germany.
The recent trend shows 1. FSV Mainz 05 on the rise, +2.1 rating points over their last 10 matches, while SC Freiburg has also improved, albeit more slowly at +0.6.
1. FSV Mainz 05 lost 0.2 rating points in the last contest between these two, on 12 April 2026.
1. FSV Mainz 05 first reached their highest ever xGtoday rating of 80.7 on 31 August 2025.
The highest SC Freiburg have ever stood in our European rankings is #32, first reached on 15 September 2022.