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match result explainer
FC Barcelona
93.8 -0.2
45%
1 - 1
27%
Real Madrid
94.2 +0.2
28%
Home team
Score of the match
Away team
Rating of the home team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Barcelona is now rated 93.8, down 0.2 from their previous rating.
Rating of the away team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Real Madrid is now rated 94.2, up 0.2 from their previous rating.
Pre-match predictions of the outcome, based on the ratings of the two teams and Barcelona's home field advantage. xGtoday predicted a 45% chance Barcelona would win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance Real Madrid would win. The green outline around the 27% indicates that the match ended in a draw.
match prediction explainer
Manchester City
45%
2.21
27%
4.76
Liverpool
28%
3.56
Home team
Away team
xGtoday estimates a 45% chance of the home team (Man City) winning the match.
xGtoday estimates a 27% chance of a draw
xGtoday estimates a 28% chance of the away team (Liverpool) winning the match
Greatest odds found for the home team to win
Greatest odds found for a draw. Green outline and stars highlight that xGtoday sees a higher likelihood of this result than the market. More stars indicate greater value.
There are 200 places between these two in our European rankings, with SL Benfica the higher, and 8 places between them in Portugal.
The recent trend shows SL Benfica on the rise, +0.7 rating points over their last 10 matches, while FC Arouca has also improved, albeit more slowly at +0.6.
Last time these teams played, on 14 Mar 2026, FC Arouca gained 0.8 rating points.
FC Arouca first climbed to joint #180 in our European rankings on 9 May 2025.
SL Benfica first reached their highest ever xGtoday rating of 87.9 on 10 May 2025.