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match result explainer
FC Barcelona
93.8 -0.2
45%
1 - 1
27%
Real Madrid
94.2 +0.2
28%
Home team
Score of the match
Away team
Rating of the home team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Barcelona is now rated 93.8, down 0.2 from their previous rating.
Rating of the away team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Real Madrid is now rated 94.2, up 0.2 from their previous rating.
Pre-match predictions of the outcome, based on the ratings of the two teams and Barcelona's home field advantage. xGtoday predicted a 45% chance Barcelona would win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance Real Madrid would win. The green outline around the 27% indicates that the match ended in a draw.
match prediction explainer
Manchester City
45%
2.21
27%
4.76
Liverpool
28%
3.56
Home team
Away team
xGtoday estimates a 45% chance of the home team (Man City) winning the match.
xGtoday estimates a 27% chance of a draw
xGtoday estimates a 28% chance of the away team (Liverpool) winning the match
Greatest odds found for the home team to win
Greatest odds found for a draw. Green outline and stars highlight that xGtoday sees a higher likelihood of this result than the market. More stars indicate greater value.
1. FSV Mainz 05 and TSG Hoffenheim are level in our European rankings.
The recent trend shows 1. FSV Mainz 05 on the rise, +1.3 rating points over their last 10 matches, while TSG Hoffenheim has gone the other way at -0.4.
Last time these teams played, on 4 Apr 2026, TSG Hoffenheim lost 1.0 rating points.
1. FSV Mainz 05 first reached their highest ever xGtoday rating of 80.7 on 31 Aug 2025.
TSG Hoffenheim first climbed to #14 in our European rankings on 4 May 2019.