Watford vs Derby County prediction | 13 Mar 2027 | xGtoday


Watford
Ranking: #385 overall, #47 in England

63.7 → 60.3 (-3.4 over last 10 games)

Rating
1-0 18 Sep 26 Bristol City (A) 61.0 -0.4
0-4 10 Oct 26 Burnley (H) 60.3 -0.7
5-1 13 Oct 26 Cardiff City (A) 59.6 -0.7
2-0 17 Oct 26 Charlton (H) 60.4 +0.8
1-0 24 Oct 26 Wolves (A) 60.3 -0.1
Derby County
Ranking: #321 overall, #41 in England

63.6 → 62.2 (-1.4 over last 10 games)

Rating
1-1 19 Sep 26 Burnley (A) 64.1 +1.2
1-1 10 Oct 26 Wrexham (H) 63.3 -0.8
4-1 14 Oct 26 QPR (A) 62.8 -0.5
0-1 17 Oct 26 Stoke City (H) 62.9 +0.1
1-1 24 Oct 26 Sheff Utd (A) 62.2 -0.7

Watford vs Derby County: by the numbers

Watford trail Derby County by 64 places in our proprietary European rankings, and by 6 in England.

Over their last 10 matches Derby County have moved -1.4 rating points, against -3.4 for Watford.

Last time these teams played, on 21 February 2026, Watford gained 0.4 rating points.

Watford first climbed to joint #33 in our European rankings on 8 November 2018.

The best xGtoday rating Derby County have ever held is 68.4, first set on 22 December 2018.