Derby County vs Middlesbrough prediction | 16 Mar 2027 | xGtoday


Derby County
Ranking: #363 overall, #44 in England

63.4 → 60.9 (-2.5 over last 10 games)

Rating
4-1 14 Oct 26 QPR (A) 62.8 -0.5
0-1 17 Oct 26 Stoke City (H) 62.9 +0.1
1-1 24 Oct 26 Sheff Utd (A) 62.2 -0.7
4-1 31 Oct 26 Millwall (A) 61.6 -0.6
0-4 03 Nov 26 Norwich City (H) 60.9 -0.7
Middlesbrough
Ranking: #62 overall, #19 in England

74.4 → 76.2 (+1.8 over last 10 games)

Rating
1-0 10 Oct 26 Wolves (H) 75.0 0.0
2-3 13 Oct 26 Stoke City (A) 75.4 +0.4
2-2 17 Oct 26 Cardiff City (H) 75.7 +0.3
1-5 23 Oct 26 Bolton (A) 76.1 +0.4
3-0 31 Oct 26 Charlton (H) 76.2 +0.1

Derby County vs Middlesbrough: by the numbers

Derby County trail Middlesbrough by 301 places in our proprietary European rankings, and by 25 in England.

Middlesbrough arrive on the stronger recent trend, moving +1.8 rating points over their last 10 matches against Derby County's -2.5.

Last time these teams played, on 1 January 2026, Middlesbrough gained 0.1 rating points.

Derby County first climbed to joint #147 in our European rankings on 23 December 2018.

The best xGtoday rating Middlesbrough have ever held is 76.2, first set on 31 October 2026.