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match result explainer
FC Barcelona
93.8 -0.2
45%
1 - 1
27%
Real Madrid
94.2 +0.2
28%
Home team
Score of the match
Away team
Rating of the home team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Barcelona is now rated 93.8, down 0.2 from their previous rating.
Rating of the away team and change in their rating as a result of this match. Real Madrid is now rated 94.2, up 0.2 from their previous rating.
Pre-match predictions of the outcome, based on the ratings of the two teams and Barcelona's home field advantage. xGtoday predicted a 45% chance Barcelona would win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance Real Madrid would win. The green outline around the 27% indicates that the match ended in a draw.
match prediction explainer
Manchester City
45%
2.21
27%
4.76
Liverpool
28%
3.56
Home team
Away team
xGtoday estimates a 45% chance of the home team (Man City) winning the match.
xGtoday estimates a 27% chance of a draw
xGtoday estimates a 28% chance of the away team (Liverpool) winning the match
Greatest odds found for the home team to win
Greatest odds found for a draw. Green outline and stars highlight that xGtoday sees a higher likelihood of this result than the market. More stars indicate greater value.
There are 15 places between these two in our European rankings, with 1. FSV Mainz 05 the higher, and 1 place between them in Germany.
The recent trend shows 1. FSV Mainz 05 on the rise, +2.0 rating points over their last 10 matches, while SC Freiburg has also improved, albeit more slowly at +0.8.
Last time these teams played, on 12 April 2026, SC Freiburg gained 0.1 rating points.
The best xGtoday rating SC Freiburg have ever held is 80.7, first set on 6 November 2022.
1. FSV Mainz 05 first climbed to #32 in our European rankings on 22 September 2021.